Break-Up

Hello Readers, reason for my prolonged absence is a nasty breakup I had to suffer... No, no, not that kind of breakup... I actually quit my job.

It was my first and so far only job so it was very difficult for me to let go and apparently I was doing great so it was difficult for my company also to let me go. Anyways, the job was taking too much of my time and travelling was also increasing day by day making my family very unhappy. Final nail in the coffin was probably my travel during Navratri after which my family said enough is enough. I also thought so as work was getting monotonous... So I just chilled out and was busy last few days attending send-offs and then visiting my roots during Diwali vacations. Had a whale of time and fun.

Have so many things on my mind, a long to do list and off course this blog is one big priority. I have got couple of good suggestions for new posts and will definitely act on them.

Keep watching this blog for more and YES, thanks a lot for your patience. Happy Trading.

USA and India

As promised, I am back with second installment of my 'NIFTY Comparison with rest of the World' posts. We had already seen Europe and India at the start of the month and in fact it now warrants a re-look at the charts in that post. Will do that sometime. Today, let us see what the US Markets have in store for us. As all of us know that US continues to be largest and most influential market around the World and I do not see any short or medium term threat to its dominance. Any trader or investor anywhere in the World cannot ignore signals from US Markets and we have always been taking cues from it in this blog. Today though I am afraid that I do not have all the positive news for the bulls.

Like Europe, US also has a maze of various indices which you can look at and refer and trade upon. Not only US Dollar, Gold, Commodities, Shipping, Minerals, Oil, etc is decided in US Markets but hosts of Bonds, Money Market Instruments, Exchange Rates and all that has origin and maximum trading there. US Markets also track a variety of sentiments, housing prices, jobless claims and what not. Get the Alice in Wonderland feeling? What we know of them is just the start of the rabbit hole.

Anyway, we will only see the three most directly impacting indices today. Just to keep it simple.

S&P 500

Upward channel is broken as well as 50 Moving Average has been taken out convincingly. Series of higher highs and higher lows is also violated. Now if any of you follow cycle theory then you will know that it is not unusual for corrections in a left translated cycle to go below the earlier low... or in simple terms it may not be a sign of sure shot correction but it still is a threat and considerable at that. Caution advised.

Positive thing is that 200 MA is still at some distance and a close eye to be kept at that level. A bounce above 1435 will give some respite for Bulls though I will not count on that with all my bets.

DJIA

Quite the similar story here too though it is little more bearish than S&P 500. Both these indices are a close reflection of NIFTY in composition and both are showing signs of stress. Most serious signs of problems though come from NASDAQ Composite which may not affect NIFTY as much and as direct as these two.

NASDAQ

NASDAQ appears to be in serious trouble here. It is extremely close to 200 MA and looks to be in downtrend. It is also a victim of below expectations results from Google, Microsoft, Apple and other technology companies. Many of these companies also hold the key to general sentiments of US Investors and hence they do affect everything else indirectly. NASDAQ may bounce from its 200 MA and may go up to upper end of the channel at 3050. Beyond that, it is difficult to say the direction of next move.

Intriguing signals from US and surely interesting times for NIFTY. I am not really interested to drawing any conclusions here for NIFTY and will leave it to you guys to comment on. So let me know what you think of these charts and its possible effects on NIFTY... Will be very happy to have a dialogue on this so don't disappoint me.

Happy Trading as always.

Back Again...

Hello there guys n gals. Finally I am back here and totally at loss of words on how to start again. I had to literally go through last few posts to realize where were we and what were we discussing to bring myself up to the speed again. So will try to write something today and my apologies if you find it little off the mark.

Before we proceed, let me wish you all and your loved ones a very happy, prosperous and healthy Vijayadashami... May all the good in your life prevail on everything that is bad... always.

Had planned to write yesterday but then I could not make myself miss the Garba after missing all the fun earlier. It was great and I feel sorry for missing out on most of it. Nevertheless I am so happy to be back among all the festivities and fun and frolic.

Today I cannot make a long post so will just visit the good friend NIFTY to start rolling again and may be I can come back tomorrow with a biggie post. So lets look what have I missed out in last few weeks...

I wish I could remove that freaky line where NIFTY dropped by over 900 points but the software won't allow me. Anyway after breaking the couple of years long down channel, NIFTY appears to be in very stiff upward channel and seems to be going strong barring in between visit to lower line of channel. There are some indicators showing pause in the current rally but I believe quarterly results will set the tone as of now and we may see daily mood swings depending on results from heavyweights.

US Markets are very interestingly poised and their movement in next few sessions is very critical. That means that in all likelihood the next post can be 'America and India'. Hope that I am able to cover for lack of writing in last few weeks by bringing in few interesting reads for you guys. I felt really bad for this absence and I am sure I will have understanding from all of you.

Do let me know what is happening at your end and what would you like to see here. Happy Trading.