'Just Like That'

Hey Guys,

I am back... 'just like that'. There are many things to share as to where I been, what was I doing and what are future plans, etc. All those things can wait as I actually had a look at the charts today after a longggggg gap. Not many charts and not many indicators; just NIFTY.

To cut the long story short, on a daily chart NIFTY is in trouble. On a weekly basis however we have some margin before all hell breaks loose. Lets just hope that NIFTY doesn't breach 5950 on a weekly closing basis (if you are a Bull of course).

I am terribly out of practice so am not posting any charts today. Hope to do that soon.

I most sincerely apologize for taking off 'just like that' but I sure am happy to come back 'just like that'. Please forgive me 'just like that'. It can and will only get better from here.

Break-Up

Hello Readers, reason for my prolonged absence is a nasty breakup I had to suffer... No, no, not that kind of breakup... I actually quit my job.

It was my first and so far only job so it was very difficult for me to let go and apparently I was doing great so it was difficult for my company also to let me go. Anyways, the job was taking too much of my time and travelling was also increasing day by day making my family very unhappy. Final nail in the coffin was probably my travel during Navratri after which my family said enough is enough. I also thought so as work was getting monotonous... So I just chilled out and was busy last few days attending send-offs and then visiting my roots during Diwali vacations. Had a whale of time and fun.

Have so many things on my mind, a long to do list and off course this blog is one big priority. I have got couple of good suggestions for new posts and will definitely act on them.

Keep watching this blog for more and YES, thanks a lot for your patience. Happy Trading.

USA and India

As promised, I am back with second installment of my 'NIFTY Comparison with rest of the World' posts. We had already seen Europe and India at the start of the month and in fact it now warrants a re-look at the charts in that post. Will do that sometime. Today, let us see what the US Markets have in store for us. As all of us know that US continues to be largest and most influential market around the World and I do not see any short or medium term threat to its dominance. Any trader or investor anywhere in the World cannot ignore signals from US Markets and we have always been taking cues from it in this blog. Today though I am afraid that I do not have all the positive news for the bulls.

Like Europe, US also has a maze of various indices which you can look at and refer and trade upon. Not only US Dollar, Gold, Commodities, Shipping, Minerals, Oil, etc is decided in US Markets but hosts of Bonds, Money Market Instruments, Exchange Rates and all that has origin and maximum trading there. US Markets also track a variety of sentiments, housing prices, jobless claims and what not. Get the Alice in Wonderland feeling? What we know of them is just the start of the rabbit hole.

Anyway, we will only see the three most directly impacting indices today. Just to keep it simple.

S&P 500

Upward channel is broken as well as 50 Moving Average has been taken out convincingly. Series of higher highs and higher lows is also violated. Now if any of you follow cycle theory then you will know that it is not unusual for corrections in a left translated cycle to go below the earlier low... or in simple terms it may not be a sign of sure shot correction but it still is a threat and considerable at that. Caution advised.

Positive thing is that 200 MA is still at some distance and a close eye to be kept at that level. A bounce above 1435 will give some respite for Bulls though I will not count on that with all my bets.

DJIA

Quite the similar story here too though it is little more bearish than S&P 500. Both these indices are a close reflection of NIFTY in composition and both are showing signs of stress. Most serious signs of problems though come from NASDAQ Composite which may not affect NIFTY as much and as direct as these two.

NASDAQ

NASDAQ appears to be in serious trouble here. It is extremely close to 200 MA and looks to be in downtrend. It is also a victim of below expectations results from Google, Microsoft, Apple and other technology companies. Many of these companies also hold the key to general sentiments of US Investors and hence they do affect everything else indirectly. NASDAQ may bounce from its 200 MA and may go up to upper end of the channel at 3050. Beyond that, it is difficult to say the direction of next move.

Intriguing signals from US and surely interesting times for NIFTY. I am not really interested to drawing any conclusions here for NIFTY and will leave it to you guys to comment on. So let me know what you think of these charts and its possible effects on NIFTY... Will be very happy to have a dialogue on this so don't disappoint me.

Happy Trading as always.