Europe at Cross Roads

Well, you all know that a good part of my month long break was spent in Europe. It is really tough to see such amazing landscape and probably World's most beautiful and scenic countries in such a financial mess. It is really a tough world.

There are two different schools of thought on going forward, how this Europe Crisis will unfold. One school thinks that everything will be all right and sane people will take saner decisions, sanity will prevail and we will all live happily thereafter. Then, there are people who are out to prove Newton right (equal and opposite reaction). These people strongly feel that this whole sh*t is going to hit the fan soon and it will all end very badly for Europe. They feel that Eurozone will break, Euro as a currency will die and Europe will need decades to recover and come anywhere close to its past glory.

Now, obviously, there are damn good reasons for both these camps to think what they are thinking. There is a consistent stream of news coming from Europe all the time which can be taken in either positive or negative way. Lets see, Olli Rehn (European Commissioner for Economic and Monetory Affairs) thinks that Greece is 'very close' to the debt deal. He very correctly says that next three days will affect next three years for Europe. In another news, Spain's unemployment rate is now 23%. More than half of Spain's 16 years to 24 years young are unemployed. This is highest in the Industrialized World and this is an Official Figure.

Then, there are rating agencies to add some spice to curry. You can have a look at the S&P Rating of Eurozone countries here. It is funny, these agencies took almost endless time to wake up and realize that the debt issued by many European countries is worthless.

Every now and then we keep hearing about a crucial meeting to solve Eurozone Crisis. Positive statement from Merkel, bad stats from Italy and so on... news keeps flowing, we keep reacting and some influential people somewhere keep making lot of money... (caution: unsubstantiated statement... don't sue me please)

I personally believe in the continuation of World (I don't think World is going to end in 2012... even the movie was bad). What I mean by this is little philosophical and will elaborate more on it in next post...

To be continued...

Happy Republic Day

Hey guys, two things today.

First, wish you all and our Country a Very Happy Republic Day !!!

Another thing is my post yesterday was post no 50 on this blog. Now 50 may not be a very large no considering its been almost 4 months since we are here but nevertheless it is a milestone. Lets celebrate.

Will make a special post this weekend to mark this. Trade post too during the weekend.

Have fun till then.

NIFTY at Cross Roads

Yet another time in last year and quarter, NIFTY is at cross roads. The channel in which NIFTY has been moving is way too long now and a break out is imminent. As the current situation stands, NIFTY is at stone's throw distance above 200 EMA, about 100 point short of upper channel. RSI is at a level not seen since last 16 months and MACD is also showing considerable divergence.

Now, all of this does not mean a damn thing. Markets have a long history of proving predictions less worth than the paper they are written on. We will just see the facts here.

On the positive side, 'Monty', Italy's Prime Minister, is hopeful of a longer lasting solution to Europe Crisis and I want to share his optimism. Next couple of days are extremely crucial and will make or break Europe literally and figuratively. May be a larger post on Europe is called for. Will write one soon.

On the flip side, if anybody of you follow cycle theory, then we are due for a short term bottom in last week of Jan or first week of Feb in American Markets. Also an intermediate degree correction is due in March-April time. Cycles have been known to follow much more predictive behavior and I will not rule out NIFTY following it to start it's journey towards the bottom of the channel.

Before I close this post, few stocks have already broken out of their channel. See one below.

Will write more soon and will write about trades (if I can spot any opportunities) soon.

I am Back again...

Well, if anything to go by my last post, then I understood that only being back is not enough. It was simply a case of planning too much in advance when I thought that I can write day and night now. I am not going to do that mistake again. I will just say that I will write as much as I can and as much regularly as I can here onward.

Right now, I will just leave you with a picture (worth a thousand words).

NIFTY is approaching upper band and it is already at 200 EMA. Will we see a break on the upper side this time or we will have another down move towards lower channel? That's a question worth potential thousands. Right now I am short of any informed opinion because I liked it or not but have been away from trading for much longer than I would have liked.

However, will surely get back into reading ways (and off course writing) and will let you know what I think in a couple days.

Meanwhile why don't you visit Credit Card Blog and let me know what you think.

I am Back

Hey there guys, finally I am back. It is so good to be writing again.

Tell you one thing... Singapore's Order, Europe's Natural Beauty and America's Modern Wonders can not match the mayhem that is in India. Yes, I was in all three continents first for Work, then for New Year Holiday and then a Wedding.

Had a blast but was dying to get back in India... missed all of you, all the traffic, all the honking and off course missed tit bits of Anna Hazare, Mamata and Kabil Sibbal big time.

Will not be joining office for another couple of days so will probably have loads of time for catching up as well as making up for some lost time. See you soon with a fresh post.

And yes, wish you a (very very) belated Happy New Year 2012. Have any resolutions?