Watta Week

A lot has happened since I made last post a week back.

There was power outages which crippled almost 600 Million people in a rising superpower country. There were blasts in my home town, Pune, in an area which can be very crowded on the eve of Rakshabandhan. There has been RBI meet in last week with only symbolic action coming through. There was a Fed meeting too not very different from RBI. Then we now officially have a drought which further threatens our already paralyzed economy. We have managed a few medals (way less than whats Phelps alone have won) in Olympics.

Let us hope this week brings us some real good news.

I have been trying to write a post every 2-3 days but things have been not working out as well so I will have to manage with what best I can do. Let us see what charts tell us for coming week.

See the weekly chart for NIFTY above. The upward pointing arrows indicate higher highs that we are getting from Jan. If we had got higher highs also, that would have meant some thing but the high of June last week was lower than the Feb and that is where this theory is weakened. Right now also, the coming week is very important and a positive week will give us at least some hope that uptrend is not ruled out completely. However a negative week will leave open the possibility that low of 2 weeks back was not the final low and we may go on to make a low which is lower than the low of June first week. This will almost completely negate the possibility of uptrend.

My reading; we are not out of the woods as yet. At the same time I am also getting a 'feeling' that we may be at the end of this long term bear correction. Usually such long term trends end in high power euphoria (bull) or high despair carnage (bears) which is yet to be seen. That is the reason I don't think we have seen the end of this downtrend. What are we waiting for? May be some kind of shock after all.

Europe, US or even China can bring about that kind of shock which can kill the sentiments and make everyone lose hope. That precisely will be the point to start investing and make merry. If we don't get such bad news from outside, may be we can make Pranab Da FM again. That will certainly qualify.

Will have to make another post soon. It is already half made and won't be long.

Happy Trading. Don't forget the comments.