I still hate IT Returns

And I will continue to hate IT Returns. But that is for next year, at least for this year I am through with them. It is a relief and I can say that next year it will be a cake walk unless new FM changes something and brings up new so called 'Saral' form to make returns 'Simpler'.

Then in a related development my usual charting software has gone bonkers and I was trying to get it back up online through today. Failed; so you will see a different chart today.

The chart is slightly different than usual but I am sure you will not find it difficult to read. It lacks few functionality but will make do for some time. The interesting thing to see on the chart is the close proximity of 50DMA and 200 DMA. We are inching towards a Death Cross and it can be confirmed only after it lasts for a few sessions.

I will reiterate that in my opinion we are still in a bear market which is seeing counter trend rallies in between. Out trading horizon is usually less than 4 weeks and hence we have to mind the short as well as medium term trends and factor them in our trading decisions. It may be little difficult to believe we are in long term bear market looking at the chart above so may be our perspective will be clear if we see the chart of long term.

If you see this chart on a weekly or monthly basis things become a lot more clear. I expect some weakness in the market even in next four weeks but I am not sure about the magnitude of the move. It may not be as violent as in the last series. We may see some downward move followed by a rally and then some consolidation in the new trading range before a break out. That will be a good point for us to make some investment (not trading) decisions.

Have to study few more things in details before I can make a sound trading call. It may be simply buy/sell trade or I may work out some 'Spread' kind of trade to reduce the risk. Will try to make that post very soon but have to get some idea or some news from Europe/US to make it worthwhile.

Finally I have made up my mind regarding tutorials also so will be back with that as well. Will try to start that tomorrow itself if trading scenario is not clear. Lets hope for best. Happy trading till then.

I hate IT Returns

No kidding... the whole system of filing your IT Returns is so cumbersome that I really hate it. Primary reason for that is I have vowed not to take help of my family CA this time and decided to file it online. In the whole value chain everyone is hell bent on making your life terrible. Right from the company giving you Form 16, Banks giving you Form 16A, Broker giving you Trading Statement and P&L account... everything is so full of jargon that by the time you read them completely you have a splitting headache. It would have been so much easy to just know the amount you need to pay... pay it and sleep well. But Alas. The whole system with all (earstwhile) Saral and now ITRs is so unfriendly that you wonder whether it is made for helping residents pay tax or otherwise. The CAs are a happy lot in any case.

Ok, after this ranting, I am feeling a lot better and lighter. Now we can come back to our Blog. My apologies for taking off without any prior notice. Went to my native in Konkan for chilling out and got entangled in IT Returns after coming back. Still not over but should be done with it by tomorrow I guess.

I went through your comments and mails and can conclude that you guys want to know about RSI/MACD and Futures. I also have my own ideas but I will keep them aside for the time being and see how I can attend to your wish. I will have to make it a lot more structured this time though so it may be a couple days before I start on with tutorials again.

Meanwhile, I hope those of you who got in to 5300 PUT and some of you who preferred 5200 PUT are not disappointed. I guess you must have got good returns for your investment. This is an expiry week and though one may tend to expect volatility, the experience of last expiry was totally different. Even now, Volatility Index, VIX is at a record low and hence Option Premiums are not very high. You can have a look at it here. It is right now lower than 19 from highs of 30+. No place of high Beta stocks at the moment. Will explain this later.

At the moment, will post the NIFTY Chart before signing off. I am posting a weekly chart this time as it will help me make my point better.

As I have mentioned in earlier post that higher highs and higher lows is the first sign of Bull Market. On a weekly level we have one higher high and one higher low already. However it was in any case foolish to think that Markets are in an uptrend with all the macro-economic factors in mess, turmoil in West and a plethora of negative news from everywhere. Rightly so, we have seen Lower High and the high of June is lower than the high of Feb. Now if the Market breaches Low made in April then the picture becomes very clear. We already have all EMAs taken out by the market convincingly and MACD/ RSI are also not offering any hopes. I would bet on Markets breaching 4800 soon but you guys, hold your horses and do not rush in to trades as I need to be back this hypothesis with a better reasoning.

I will write more about it when I write the trading post for August series. Have a Happy IT Return filing till then. Have tweeted about Supports and Resistance too.

Break Over

Hi all, I took a voluntary break from reading, writing and trading. There was no reason but just to get away from things so that I can come back fresh.

And fresh I am now. Have gone through your comments and mails and will write soon. Hope you guys had fun too.